Many purchasers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to hit bottom. They want to guarantee that they are purchasing at the best possible price. Like them, we also believe that prices still have some room to fall in most markets. However, we disagree that waiting is a good financial decision. The buyer should not be concerned about housing prices. They should be concerned about cost.
The cost of a house is made up of the price AND THE INTEREST RATE they will be paying. Two different pieces of news released yesterday highlight this point.
PRICES
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their 4th quarter housing research report. In the release, they reported that home sales rose 15.4% in the 4th quarter over the 3rd quarter. They also showed that prices remained stable during the year:
The national median existing single-family price was $170,600 in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percent from $170,300 in the fourth quarter of 2009.
A buyer who delayed a purchase might find solace in the fact that prices have not increased. However, the other news released yesterday paints a different picture.
INTEREST RATES
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey was released by Freddie Mac which showed that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.05%. Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac said:
“Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week…As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010.”
So prices have remained stable but interest rates have risen dramatically in the last 90 days. What does that mean to a buyer looking to purchase a home this year?
The price is the same. It just costs more.
Let’s show you what the news means:
Date Loan Interest Monthly Payment
Amount Rate (P & I)
Today $170,000 5.05% $917.80
Nov. 2010 $170,000 4.17% $828.36
Difference in Mortgage payments $ 89.44
By sitting on the sidelines for the last 90 days a purchaser lost:
$89.44 a month
$1,073.28 a year
$32,198.40 over the thirty year life of the mortgage
If you buy a $340,000 home, double all these numbers.
Bottom Line
Even if prices fall another 10% this year, the cost of a home will increase if interest rates go up more than 1%. Buyers should not worry where prices are going. They should be concerned where costs will be later in the year.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
As We Were Saying…
Several months ago, we explained that there would be an opportunity to sell your house at a higher price in the first quarter of this year than you could later in the year. Our believe was that the robo-signing mess would delay foreclosures coming to the market and that your home would sell at a higher price before these distressed properties became your competition (foreclosures sell at a 41% average discount). The numbers are now in and what we projected is in fact taking place.
Clear Capital released its monthly Home Data Index last week. In the report, they explained:
(Our) Home Data Index shows that U.S. home prices stopped declining in early January and have posted their first uptick since mid-August 2010.
“This recent national change in price direction is encouraging for the overall housing sector,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital.
“This uptick is the first non-incentivized change in prices we’ve seen since the downturn began, and could provide great opportunity for buyers, sellers and investors alike. Although many markets still remain under significant downward pressure in light of increased distressed sale activities, it is clear that the severity of the downturns observed in October and November have subsided.”
It seems prices have stabilized and, in some markets, are perhaps even showing appreciation. However, before we get too excited let’s take a look at the reason this is taking place. According to Clear Capital:
…it is still too early to determine whether this current uptick in home prices is a temporary reprieve or the start of a sustained recovery…
Why? The number of distressed properties coming to market slowed dramatically in the last quarter of 2010.
…every spike in REO saturation (REO saturation calculates the percentage of real estate owned properties sold as compared to all properties sold in the last rolling quarter) has corresponded with a decline in home prices, and vice versa. The most recent rolling quarter for REO saturation has slowed considerably after gaining 3.2 percent during Q3 2010, with national REO rates only climbing 1.4 percent. A decrease in REO saturation indicates that an increasing proportion of fair market transactions are occurring, and as the level of distressed transactions decrease, prices tend to increase since the overall market value for an area is less affected by distressed comparable sales. If this observed negative correlation persists, a leveling off of the national REO saturation rate could indicate that home prices are poised for further gains well ahead of the seasonal spring lift.
As we explained months ago, there is a window of opportunity to sell before a large number of discounted properties go up for sale. This opportunity will last for the next 60-90 days. By then, banks will have fixed many of their paperwork challenges and again start releasing distressed properties to the market.
Bottom Line
If you wish to sell in the next twelve months, do it now. You will get a better price today than you will later in the year.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Clear Capital released its monthly Home Data Index last week. In the report, they explained:
(Our) Home Data Index shows that U.S. home prices stopped declining in early January and have posted their first uptick since mid-August 2010.
“This recent national change in price direction is encouraging for the overall housing sector,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital.
“This uptick is the first non-incentivized change in prices we’ve seen since the downturn began, and could provide great opportunity for buyers, sellers and investors alike. Although many markets still remain under significant downward pressure in light of increased distressed sale activities, it is clear that the severity of the downturns observed in October and November have subsided.”
It seems prices have stabilized and, in some markets, are perhaps even showing appreciation. However, before we get too excited let’s take a look at the reason this is taking place. According to Clear Capital:
…it is still too early to determine whether this current uptick in home prices is a temporary reprieve or the start of a sustained recovery…
Why? The number of distressed properties coming to market slowed dramatically in the last quarter of 2010.
…every spike in REO saturation (REO saturation calculates the percentage of real estate owned properties sold as compared to all properties sold in the last rolling quarter) has corresponded with a decline in home prices, and vice versa. The most recent rolling quarter for REO saturation has slowed considerably after gaining 3.2 percent during Q3 2010, with national REO rates only climbing 1.4 percent. A decrease in REO saturation indicates that an increasing proportion of fair market transactions are occurring, and as the level of distressed transactions decrease, prices tend to increase since the overall market value for an area is less affected by distressed comparable sales. If this observed negative correlation persists, a leveling off of the national REO saturation rate could indicate that home prices are poised for further gains well ahead of the seasonal spring lift.
As we explained months ago, there is a window of opportunity to sell before a large number of discounted properties go up for sale. This opportunity will last for the next 60-90 days. By then, banks will have fixed many of their paperwork challenges and again start releasing distressed properties to the market.
Bottom Line
If you wish to sell in the next twelve months, do it now. You will get a better price today than you will later in the year.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Friday, January 28, 2011
Where Are Housing Prices Headed?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has been reporting great news recently. Last week’s Existing Home Sales Report and yesterday’s Pending Sales Report both showed consecutive months of increases in the number of homes sold. Finally, buyers are jumping off the fence and taking advantage of one of the most opportune times to purchase a home in America’s real estate history. With an increase in demand, price appreciation can’t be far behind, can it?
Actually, the answer is NO! Prices are not determined by demand alone but in the relationship of demand to available supply. The inventory of homes for sale is still too high and about to surge higher. Along with the news of increased demand yesterday, RealtyTrac released their 2010 Year-End Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report. The report showed that distressed properties across the country are on the rise:
… foreclosure levels remained five to 10 times higher than historic norms in most hard-hit markets, where deep fault lines of risk remain and could potentially trigger more waves of foreclosure activity in 2011 and beyond.
The report also explained that the foreclosure epidemic is spreading to more and more of our communities:
… foreclosures became more widespread in 2010 as high unemployment drove activity up in 72 percent of the nation’s metro areas — many of which were relatively insulated from the initial foreclosure tsunami.
What does this mean for prices?
Here are a few quotes from this week.
Washington Post:
The closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller report shows that housing prices, compared year-over-year, have declined nationally for six consecutive months. The downward path suggests that housing prices could, by spring, hit their lowest level since April 2009, said David Blitzer, the index committee’s chairman.
New York Times:
A new slide in housing prices has begun in earnest, with averages in major cities across the country falling to their lowest point in many years.
CNN Money:
Barclay’s Bank analyst Theresa Chen doesn’t expect a reversal in housing market trends any time soon, since there is no end in sight to the foreclosure crisis.
“We expect softness to persist,” she said, “as home prices continue to face headwinds from the large pipeline of foreclosures entering the market.”
Housing Wire:
“… we believe that home prices will continue to weaken on a month-over-month basis until spring, and a year-over-year basis through the end of 2011,” the Radar Logic said.
Bottom Line
Prices will continue to soften in the first half of 2011 in most regions of the country. This information should be taken into consideration if you plan on selling your house in the next twelve months.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Actually, the answer is NO! Prices are not determined by demand alone but in the relationship of demand to available supply. The inventory of homes for sale is still too high and about to surge higher. Along with the news of increased demand yesterday, RealtyTrac released their 2010 Year-End Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report. The report showed that distressed properties across the country are on the rise:
… foreclosure levels remained five to 10 times higher than historic norms in most hard-hit markets, where deep fault lines of risk remain and could potentially trigger more waves of foreclosure activity in 2011 and beyond.
The report also explained that the foreclosure epidemic is spreading to more and more of our communities:
… foreclosures became more widespread in 2010 as high unemployment drove activity up in 72 percent of the nation’s metro areas — many of which were relatively insulated from the initial foreclosure tsunami.
What does this mean for prices?
Here are a few quotes from this week.
Washington Post:
The closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller report shows that housing prices, compared year-over-year, have declined nationally for six consecutive months. The downward path suggests that housing prices could, by spring, hit their lowest level since April 2009, said David Blitzer, the index committee’s chairman.
New York Times:
A new slide in housing prices has begun in earnest, with averages in major cities across the country falling to their lowest point in many years.
CNN Money:
Barclay’s Bank analyst Theresa Chen doesn’t expect a reversal in housing market trends any time soon, since there is no end in sight to the foreclosure crisis.
“We expect softness to persist,” she said, “as home prices continue to face headwinds from the large pipeline of foreclosures entering the market.”
Housing Wire:
“… we believe that home prices will continue to weaken on a month-over-month basis until spring, and a year-over-year basis through the end of 2011,” the Radar Logic said.
Bottom Line
Prices will continue to soften in the first half of 2011 in most regions of the country. This information should be taken into consideration if you plan on selling your house in the next twelve months.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Thursday, January 27, 2011
What The Crystal Ball Says About Rates
Predicting what will happen with interest rates is risky for a person’s credibility. Last year at this time, I believed rates would climb after June and for very logical reasons: the end of the Fed’s purchase of mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) and the end of the Tax Credit. What we didn’t anticipate was the collapse of the Greek economy.
That being said, I firmly believe that my opinion on the topic has some value. So, here’s my opinion (which assumes the governments of Ireland, Spain and Portugal stay solvent and no other major geo-political event occurs- like a war or terrorist activity).
The Fed and the federal government have publically stated their desire to get the American Economy back on track. Their goals:
Creating Jobs. They want to put Americans to work.
Improving Production in the corporate and manufacturing sectors (which will create jobs and profits)
Ratcheting Up Inflation in order to get prices moving upwards (really as a prevention of deflation)
Accomplishing these goals will likely improve the fortune of businesses (by creating higher sales, profits and stock prices). In turn, the expectation is that these businesses will expand (spending money and creating jobs). The money spent and jobs created will beget more spending in the private sector which will, in turn, create more sales, profits and jobs for the businesses. Logical? Yes. Simple to accomplish? No.
Rewind 18 months: the Fed decided to buy massive quantities of mortgage-backed-securities to keep rates low (which encourages businesses to borrow and invest….and to refinance their existing debt to help their bottom lines). Unfortunately, there was little confidence in the plan and many businesses instead of expanding, actually tightened their belts. You see, CONFIDENCE is a crucial component to any recovery. There wasn’t enough confidence (look at the November elections as proof).
But in the last few months, Americans seem to have to begun to feel that things can and will improve. QE2 has encouraged borrowing and expanding. Jobs are starting to come back slowly. The infusion of $600 billion into the economy from the Fed via their new MBS purchase program is both inflationary and helpful in devaluing the dollar abroad (which allows foreign money to buy more American goods and services for less). That helps improve sales, profits and jobs for businesses here. The wheel is beginning to grind its way in the right direction. At least, there is some confidence in that plan.
How is all this likely to affect mortgage interest rates?
Inflation is always…bad for rates
More jobs is inflationary…bad for rates
A strong stock market…bad for rates
A devalued dollar helps companies selling abroad and their stock value…bad for rates
Consumer Confidence typically good for stock prices…bad for rates
Conventional wisdom is that, while rates have climbed from the low 4s to about 5% already, 2011 looks to be a volatile year with rates bouncing from 4.75% to 5.5% throughout the year. That’s a significant range and it behooves home buyers to pay attention and strongly consider locking in their rates when they are 5.125% or lower.
Additionally, home sellers need to recognize that a .75% hike in rates makes a home about 8% more expensive to afford monthly. As we know, buyers don’t buy on price but instead buy on monthly carrying costs. Sellers are going to have to lower their prices by 8% to achieve the same cost for their buyer.
That’s my prediction in an unpredictable world….Let the debates begin
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Monday, January 24, 2011
Distressed Inventory to Step Out of the Shadows
We are beginning 2011 with much more positive news about real estate than we have had in several years. The pending sales numbers (houses going into contract) have been climbing for several months. Last month’s Existing Homes Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors showed an increase of over 12%. Demand definitely seems to be increasing. Does that mean prices will begin to appreciate? Probably not. Though buyers have finally come out of hiding and started to purchase homes again, an increased inventory of distressed properties is also emerging from the shadows. These houses will impact prices.
Prices are determined not by demand alone but instead by the relationship of demand to the supply of inventory available. We are talking about the ‘shadow inventory’ of homes that will come to market at discounted prices when they are sold as short sales or foreclosures. This inventory has swelled to several million units.
When will this begin and what impact will it have on prices?
Over the last year, banks have been slowly releasing this inventory to the market being careful not to release too great a number in fear of driving down house values even further. Over 25% of all sales in 2010 involved a distressed property. The numbers increased as the year went on with 33% of all sales in November being in this category. In December, that number jumped to 36%! It now seems that banks are preparing to increase the flow of such properties to the market.
Last month, CNBC reported on economist Nouriel Roubini’s predictions on this issue:
“There has been an effective moratorium on foreclosure,” said Roubini.
And the beginning of the end of that moratorium means more housing supply is about to become available on the market.
“The shadow inventory of not-yet-foreclosed homes—due to the moratorium—will surge in the next year,” Roubini says.
Bank of America said:
…it resumed foreclosure sales in most states that have a non-judicial process, but the bank won’t restart sales in judicial states until sometime in the first quarter.
And Housing Wire reported last week that Fannie Mae “directed its mortgage servicers to delay scheduled foreclosure sales 45 days” for borrowers trying to get assistance through certain government programs.
What impact will this have on prices? Wells Fargo projected that house prices will drop 8% by mid-year. Fannie Mae and Bank of America have also predicted price depreciation for the first half of 2011.
Should I wait to purchase?
Not necessarily. Remember, sellers should sell now before prices do begin to fall. However, as a purchaser, you should look at cost. With interest rates on the rise, waiting may result in a higher monthly mortgage payment even with a lower sales price.
As a good example, Mr. Roubini, who was mentioned above, just sold his home and upgraded to a more expensive residence. Get counsel from a mortgage professional before you consider delaying a purchase.
Bottom Line
If you are looking to sell, you probably want to do it before this ‘surge’ of discounted competition comes to market.
Reprinted from KCM Blogsite
Prices are determined not by demand alone but instead by the relationship of demand to the supply of inventory available. We are talking about the ‘shadow inventory’ of homes that will come to market at discounted prices when they are sold as short sales or foreclosures. This inventory has swelled to several million units.
When will this begin and what impact will it have on prices?
Over the last year, banks have been slowly releasing this inventory to the market being careful not to release too great a number in fear of driving down house values even further. Over 25% of all sales in 2010 involved a distressed property. The numbers increased as the year went on with 33% of all sales in November being in this category. In December, that number jumped to 36%! It now seems that banks are preparing to increase the flow of such properties to the market.
Last month, CNBC reported on economist Nouriel Roubini’s predictions on this issue:
“There has been an effective moratorium on foreclosure,” said Roubini.
And the beginning of the end of that moratorium means more housing supply is about to become available on the market.
“The shadow inventory of not-yet-foreclosed homes—due to the moratorium—will surge in the next year,” Roubini says.
Bank of America said:
…it resumed foreclosure sales in most states that have a non-judicial process, but the bank won’t restart sales in judicial states until sometime in the first quarter.
And Housing Wire reported last week that Fannie Mae “directed its mortgage servicers to delay scheduled foreclosure sales 45 days” for borrowers trying to get assistance through certain government programs.
What impact will this have on prices? Wells Fargo projected that house prices will drop 8% by mid-year. Fannie Mae and Bank of America have also predicted price depreciation for the first half of 2011.
Should I wait to purchase?
Not necessarily. Remember, sellers should sell now before prices do begin to fall. However, as a purchaser, you should look at cost. With interest rates on the rise, waiting may result in a higher monthly mortgage payment even with a lower sales price.
As a good example, Mr. Roubini, who was mentioned above, just sold his home and upgraded to a more expensive residence. Get counsel from a mortgage professional before you consider delaying a purchase.
Bottom Line
If you are looking to sell, you probably want to do it before this ‘surge’ of discounted competition comes to market.
Reprinted from KCM Blogsite
Friday, January 21, 2011
Is the Housing Market Starting to Come Back?
It seems that the housing market is finally showing signs of a recovery. We are not suggesting that it will come roaring back and we will see 2006 numbers again. However, the National Association of Realtors released their December Existing Home Sales Report yesterday. The report showed a 12.3% increase in closed transactions over the month before. Earlier in the week the Census Bureau reported that:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000. This is 16.7 percent above the revised November rate of 544,000.
Should we believe that real estate is starting to make a comeback? To some degree, we think yes. Both of the above reports are promising.
However, not all the news in the reports was positive. Existing home sales were slightly down from the same month last year. Housing completions were down 22.2% from last year’s numbers. Yet, we must also factor in that the numbers from the end of last year were artificially inflated by the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Any correlation between these numbers is not an apple-to-apple comparison.
These reports, coupled with anecdotal information we are receiving from the agents we coach all across the country, seem to suggest that we may have bottomed out in regard to the number of transactions being completed. That can only be a positive for the industry.
Bottom Line
Even though there is a huge amount of visible and shadow inventory which will continue to put downward pressure on prices, it seems that buyers are beginning to realize that there are tremendous opportunities in the market.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000. This is 16.7 percent above the revised November rate of 544,000.
Should we believe that real estate is starting to make a comeback? To some degree, we think yes. Both of the above reports are promising.
However, not all the news in the reports was positive. Existing home sales were slightly down from the same month last year. Housing completions were down 22.2% from last year’s numbers. Yet, we must also factor in that the numbers from the end of last year were artificially inflated by the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Any correlation between these numbers is not an apple-to-apple comparison.
These reports, coupled with anecdotal information we are receiving from the agents we coach all across the country, seem to suggest that we may have bottomed out in regard to the number of transactions being completed. That can only be a positive for the industry.
Bottom Line
Even though there is a huge amount of visible and shadow inventory which will continue to put downward pressure on prices, it seems that buyers are beginning to realize that there are tremendous opportunities in the market.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Most Americans Say It Is a Good Time to Buy a Home
We have been making two major points for several months. If you are selling a house, you must do it now AND if you are buying one, you must also do it now. This sounds crazy – but it is true. PRICE is the most important thing to a seller. With prices projected to fall through the first half of 2011, if you want to sell, do it now. The alternative might be to wait over a year just for prices to recover to current values.
The second point revolves around the fact that buyers are more concerned about COST (price AND interest rate). Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the PMI Company are all projecting interest rates to rise this year. If you want to buy, your best time to purchase could be right now.
We have had people question us on the second point. We truly believe it is a good time to buy however. And a new survey says that the majority of Americans agree with us. Gallup just released a poll showing that 67% of Americans think this is a good time to purchase a home. The interesting thing is that the same poll showed that more people believed that prices would decrease (27%) than increase (21%). Most people realize that this is a opportune time to purchase even if prices continue to soften.
Even the Gallup people weighed in on the subject:
Overall, there is good reason for most Americans to think now is a good time to buy a house. Interest rates remain near historic lows. Home prices are down sharply, providing many incredible buys.
Bottom Line
There may be people advising you to use caution before buying a home right now. That is probably good advice. However, there is a difference between caution and fear. Fear could paralyze you and prevent you from making a good decision. Caution will make sure you make the right decision. And remember: if you do think it makes sense to buy your home today, 2 out of 3 people agree with you.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
The second point revolves around the fact that buyers are more concerned about COST (price AND interest rate). Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the PMI Company are all projecting interest rates to rise this year. If you want to buy, your best time to purchase could be right now.
We have had people question us on the second point. We truly believe it is a good time to buy however. And a new survey says that the majority of Americans agree with us. Gallup just released a poll showing that 67% of Americans think this is a good time to purchase a home. The interesting thing is that the same poll showed that more people believed that prices would decrease (27%) than increase (21%). Most people realize that this is a opportune time to purchase even if prices continue to soften.
Even the Gallup people weighed in on the subject:
Overall, there is good reason for most Americans to think now is a good time to buy a house. Interest rates remain near historic lows. Home prices are down sharply, providing many incredible buys.
Bottom Line
There may be people advising you to use caution before buying a home right now. That is probably good advice. However, there is a difference between caution and fear. Fear could paralyze you and prevent you from making a good decision. Caution will make sure you make the right decision. And remember: if you do think it makes sense to buy your home today, 2 out of 3 people agree with you.
Reprinted from KCM Blog
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