What if You Could Buy Shoes...

What if there was a shoe store that had:

§ An unparalleled selection of shoes of every size, color, and price range

§ The shoes were discounted 30% or more

§ You had a credit card that would finance the shoes for 30 years at 4.5%

How many shoes would you buy? My bet is there would be a line around the block. Well, today, real estate is like that shoe store (incredible selection, terrific bargains and excellent financing terms). But there’s more….

§ Shoes go in and out of style. Homeownership is still the American Dream.

§ Shoes are worth less once you wear them. Homes will appreciate in value over time.

§ Shoes get disposed of. Homes are lasting.

And while many can recount memories created in certain shoes, everyone can remember their first home, their first family gathering, the countless holidays shared. There is also the ability to decorate to your tastes, the stability (and lower crime rate) in homeownership neighborhoods and the higher level of education achieved by kids who grow up there.

If you’d stand in line to buy shoes, what’s stopping you from exploring a home? Despite some media perceptions, there is mortgage money available with reasonable down payment requirements at extremely low rates…talk to a loan officer. There are some great deals out there with short sales, foreclosures and regular transactions also!

Happy Shopping!

Housing Prices: Explaining the Recent Uptick

Several pricing indices have reported that, on a month-over-

month basis, home values have ticked up slightly over the last quarter. This has caused some

 to call the bottom to the housing market – at least from a price standpoint. We must realize

that prices are determined by supply and demand.

Demand has indeed shown improvement in many parts of the country. However, the supply side of the formula is being impacted by legal issues. The number of foreclosures coming to market has been slowed dramatically by the courts as the banks still struggle with improperly filed paperwork. This inventory will eventually find its way to the market and again put downward pressure on values.

Here is a chart showing the challenge:   

Bottom Line

If you are selling, there currently is a window of opportunity to get your best price before the distressed properties are released.



Reprinted by Permission from KCM Blogsite

Thank God I Didn't Buy Gold at $400 an Ounce

We hope that headline grabbed you. The reason we used it was to bring some perspective to the debate as to whether or not homeownership is a wise investment in today’s troubled market. A family should never look at the purchase of a home simply as a financial investment. It is so much more than that. But, even if we look at it as only an investment, we must look at it in the long term. Let’s use gold as an example.

Gold had dropped from over $400 an ounce to $250 an ounce (a 40% decline) from February 1996 to August 1999. People were so glad they hadn’t bought at $400 an ounce.

Lord William Rees-Mogg, the current Chairman of The Zurich Club, in 1997 said:

“No investment has been so thoroughly exploded as gold; most people think that there will no more be another gold boom than there will be another boom in tulip futures in The Netherlands.”

Everyone knows what happened next. The proclamation of gold’s death was rather premature. Gold rose from $250 an ounce to over $1,500 an ounce in the next twelve years.

If we look at real estate in the long term, we can see that it has been a great vehicle for building family wealth. The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted once every three years, provides a snapshot of family income and net worth. There survey has shown every time that homeowners’ net worth far exceeds that of renters. Here is the breakdown of the last several surveys:

§ 1998 – Homeowner net worth exceed renters by 31%

§ 2001 – Homeowner net worth exceed renters by 36%

§ 2004 – Homeowner net worth exceed renters by 41%

§ 2007 – Homeowner net worth exceed renters by 46%

The 2010 survey is not out yet but the National Association of Realtors’ has estimated that number to be approximately 41% in 2010. You may be thinking this is no longer the case based on the current fall in home values which have dropped back to 2000 – 2002 prices.

Harvard University just completed a study that showed:

“Even if homeowner wealth fell back to 1995 levels, it would still be 27.5 times the median for renters.”

Bottom Line

We are not predicting that real estate will see the same levels of appreciation that gold did. However, we do believe that the real estate market will rebound strongly.

Distressed Property Sales: Down…But Not Out

There has been much written about the falling inventories of distressed properties in many market places. Some have looked at the decreasing percentage of distressed property sales reported by the National Association of Realtors over the last four months as a sign that we are finally cleaning out the last remnants of the foreclosures. If you look at the numbers, it could seem that way:

§ March: 40% of all sales were distressed properties

§ April: 37% of all sales were distressed properties

§ May: 31% of all sales were distressed properties

§ June: 30% of all sales were distressed properties

However, in reality the falling percentage of distressed property sales is not an accurate indicator. The reason the percentages are falling is because many homes are currently tied up in the process of foreclosure.

An article in HousingWire quoted James Zeldin, EVP Default Resource on the issue:

“I would absolutely expect an increase in inventory over the next 12 to 18 months. I’m personally expecting that a lot faster. I believe we’re going to see macro forces pushing these institutions to do more REO liquidation.”

Once these properties are cleared through the foreclosure process, the inventories of distressed homes will again increase and the percentage of sales will again begin to climb.

Bottom Line

We are working our way through large numbers of distressed properties every month. However, there are many more which will come to market in the next year to eighteen months.

Assets and Your Mortgage Application

When lenders evaluate mortgage borrowers, they look at four things: income (the ability to repay), credit (the willingness to repay), collateral (appraised value and property condition) and assets (cash in the deal and cash reserves after closing, mostly). Of the “four legs of the table”, assets are the least discussed, and yet may be the most important.

What do we mean when we talk about assets?

§ Monies needed for the down payment (the difference between the purchase price and the loan amount which may or may not be the same as the money deposit at contract signing)

§ Monies needed for closing costs (fees to the lender and third parties for things like appraisals, title insurance, settlement services, and so on)

§ Monies needed for Pre-Paids (homeowners insurance, flood insurance, real estate taxes, etc.) and establishing escrow accounts for future payments

§ Monies for Reserves- the money you still have left after closing. Monies that would be available, if a problem were to arise

Why do we care about assets?

§ Assets may be the truest reflection of a borrower’s fiscal strength. Their ability to save and properly budget could be a significant indicator to their future paying habits

§ The source of the assets is important. Savings? Gift or inheritance? Lottery victory? Insurance settlement? Sale of a baseball card collection? Each reflects differently on the borrower.

§ Many people don’t show all their income on their tax returns (it’s just a fact). Undocumented income can’t be used to qualify; however, often assets become a truer representation of a borrower ability to pay than their 1040s.

§ Reserves are an issue. A client with $50 in the bank after closing is riskier than one with $50,000. Also, clients who have money in the bank but have some sporadic lates on their credit are looked at differently than those who didn’t have the money to make the payments.

Common Asset Issues in Mortgage Packages:

§ Large deposits (defined as those which are excessive for the income level) raise an underwriter’s eyebrows. Where did the money come from? Maybe the borrower took a loan that doesn’t yet show up on their credit report.

§ Cash deposits are another red flag. In this day and age, people keep their money in the bank, not under their mattress. Where did the cash come from?

§ Gift monies and seller’s concessions, while considered as borrowers assets when doing calculations, will give an underwriter pause when assessing the borrower’s real ability to replay.

Guidelines have tightened. When borrowers are paying off credit cards to get their ratios in line, lenders are asking where that money came from now. That act has nothing to do with the home purchase, but may be a sign of something fragile in the borrower’s financial make up.

The best advice is to consult a loan professional to discuss the proper way to position your assets and the timing of it that will put you in the most favorable light.

Selling Your House? Waiting May Not Make Sense

There have been some bright spots in the residential real estate market over the last couple of months. Several price indices have reported a stabilization of prices and some regions have even shown small levels of appreciation. This has led some to believe that we may have reached a bottom for home values. We must realize that what we are actually experiencing is a ‘window of opportunity’ as the banks are delayed in bringing certain inventories of distressed properties to the market. Let’s look at what others are reporting:

Bloomberg Businessweek

“The crux of Simon’s analysis is that the loose lending practices seen during the housing bubble allowed 5 million renters to become homeowners, and that the market is in the protracted process of evicting this group. He believes housing prices will decline 6 percent to 8 percent nationally, with 6 million to 7 million more foreclosures yet to come.”

Yahoo Finance

“The problem with the real estate market remains excess inventory. Based on Shilling’s research, there are 2 million to 2.5 million excess homes in the country — a supply that will take 4-5 years to work-off. The result: Housing prices will fall another 20% and underwater mortgages will balloon from 23% to 40%, he says.”

Housing Wire

“Both warmer weather and the drop in distressed sales percentage have contributed to recent home price improvements. However, given the disappointing pace in housing demand recovery, both factors may turn against us in the coming winter and push home prices lower again…

This supply-demand imbalance affirmed JPMorgan analysts’ estimate of a further 4% drop in home prices from the first quarter of 2011 to a new bottom next year.”

DS News

“Home prices have gotten a little bit of a boost in recent months thanks to a seasonal uptick in market activity. Most analysts, however, expect further declines to characterize the later part of the year and possibly extend into next year, largely because of the huge supply of foreclosures on the market.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking of selling in the next twelve months, you would probably do much better if you sold your house sooner rather than later.






Reprinted from KCM Blogsite

Let's Get Chicken Little

You all know the story…young chicken, fearful of the worst, runs around declaring that “the sky is falling, the sky is falling”.

In today’s real estate market, there are many people (professionals and amateurs alike) with opinions that make buying real estate sound like throwing money away.

One thing I have learned in life is that opinions are like belly buttons, everyone has one. I certainly have my opinions which  are not always universally shared. But, I wanted to share mine today by asking those of you Chicken Littles some questions:

§ If we all agree that homeownership has been the American Dream, what do you propose will replace it? Video games? iPads? A better social media vehicle? Without a dream, civilizations perish.

§ If people stop investing in real estate and values crumble much further, how do you propose stopping our economy from a complete and utter collapse? Moreover, how will it ever recover?

Let’s face it: The real estate frenzy got us into this mess, in the same way that the dot.com bubble overinflated the stock market and eventually popped. But, dot.com companies were only a part of the stock market; therefore, the market could take a hit and limp around for a while yet still fall back on the other industries to regain its footing. It has taken years, but the stock market is credible again.

Real estate is different. When it slides, there is no other sector of the economy that can bail it out. You could try and argue that commercial real estate or even real estate investors who buy and hold for rent can ease the pain. However, they can’t devour all the inventory. Real estate has to be salvaged and supported by the government or the whole economy slides into the ocean.

The government has tried many things from restructuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to appraisal reform to tighter underwriting guideline to artificial manipulation of interest rates to licensing of loan officers and more. They understand the importance of real estate values to our nation’s net worth. They are committed to real estate.

My point, dear Chicken Little, is that if you believe that the United States of America is going to continue to lead the world, you know our economy has to lead the way.  In order to do that, we need housing to recover its position of strength.  That makes buying a home a safe, long term smart move. If you don’t believe it…..might be time to look for real estate in another country.

The problem with Chicken Little is nothing more than he doesn’t ever propose a solution. He just wants to predict and point out problems. Our faith in the American Dream is being tested. I believe in the Dream. And I think you should too. It may look like a leap of faith more than logic to some but there are few Chicken Littles who ever become wealthy until they change their perspective.

Just my opinion…from my belly button.