Mortgages: Is What You Believe Actually True?

What if everything you believed to be true about mortgages, wasn’t actually true after all? Would you rather know now or later? In my experience, I have come to understand that many, if not most, clients come ‘pre-conditioned’ by what has long been termed “conventional wisdom”.

For generations, people have been told that when buying a home, they should:
 Make a big down payment
 Obtain a fixed-rate-mortgage; 15 years if you can afford it
 Make additional principal payments whenever possible
 Pay off your loan as quickly as you can

People see a mortgage as a “necessary evil”- one that they should be afraid of and try to eliminate as soon as they can. And while the concept of being mortgage-free may seem attractive on the surface (and may have been an acceptable strategy in the past), we no longer live in the same world that our parents and grandparents did.

Unlike previous generations:

 We will not have the same job for life. Most people will have five to six different careers. That simple fact will preclude most people from a company pension as part of a retirement strategy.
 We cannot realistically count on Social Security to exist in its current form. Either your benefits will have to be reduced or pushed off to later years to enable the fund to remain solvent.
 We won’t have “Mortgage Burning Parties”. People live in their homes on average just seven years now and, because of refinancing, their mortgages will only last 5 years.

Ultimately, we have to appreciate that we live in a very different world and that the tactics and solutions of the past no longer fit the challenges of the present or future. I believe we have an obligation to custom design our clients’ mortgage in a way to enhance cash flow, minimize income taxes and help implement alternative strategies to protect their assets and create wealth.

I know clients can make better choices if they are armed with the understanding that every dollar applied to the principal of their mortgage (through down payments, regular mortgage payments, and even pre-payment strategies) is NOT the strongest fiscal strategy. When you pay down your mortgage, the BANK is in a less risky position. Whose risk is increasing? YOURS! I have seen clients apply money towards their principal balance of their 5% tax-deductible mortgage, while carrying 18% non-deductible credit cards. Why not get rid of the revolving debt? I know you need discipline to actually save the money you would normally apply to lower your mortgage balance.

However, I promise you that good mortgage professionals can show you the power of separating the equity from the home; the increased liquidity, the phenomenon of compounding interest and why the actual rate of return on home equity is 0%.

I imagine many will dispute my contentions here, but they are mathematically proven. If you have discipline, there IS a better way to manage your finances. Explore them and decide for yourself.




Reprinted by permission from KCM Blog

Real Estate: GOLDen Opportunity of This Decade

Everyone wants to comment on the current real estate market. They want to talk about how now is not the time to buy a home. Some even argue owning a house has never been a great investment. Most say it will be a long time before real estate again begins to appreciate. It all sounds so familiar to me. It was just a decade ago that many made the same arguments about gold as an investment. Gold had dropped from over $400 an ounce to $250 an ounce (a 40% decline) from February 1996 to August 1999. People ran from gold as though it was a plague. Lord William Rees-Mogg, the current Chairman of The Zurich Club, in 1997 said: “No investment has been so thoroughly exploded as gold; most people think that there will no more be another gold boom than there will be another boom in tulip futures in The Netherlands.” Two years later in 1999, Don Wolanchuk author of the Wolanchuk Report explained: “Everybody hates gold. You can’t have a bottom until everybody is out. And everybody is out of the gold sector.” Everyone knows what happened next. The proclamation of gold’s death was rather premature. Gold rose from $250 an ounce to over $1,400 an ounce in the next twelve years. I see the same situation with real estate today. I am not predicting that real estate will see the same levels of appreciation. I do believe however that the market will rebound strongly. Those who continued to believe in gold as an investment were rewarded. Those who continue to believe in real estate as a sound investment will also be rewarded. Here is what Adam Hamilton wrote in October 2000 in an essay titled Is Gold Dead? The road for gold investors has been long and parched in the last five years. They have wandered through a seemingly endless desert, occasionally tempted by what proves to be an illusory mirage. Many have fallen beside the sun-cracked path, their white bones picked clean by buzzards and gleaming in the sun. Nevertheless, a brave contrarian core continues to march forward. They have studied history, currency, gold, investments, economics, and finance. They understand the timeless value of gold, the cyclical nature of the markets, and the vagaries of human psychology. They realize it is darkest before the dawn, and the journey most difficult right before the homestretch is reached. Gold is in an INCREDIBLE position, and it will have its day. Nothing goes up in price forever, and nothing goes down in price forever. Investments are cyclical. Gold is NOT dead, it is simply biding its time, waiting for its next earth-shattering mega-rally. The spoils that go to the few remaining gold investors when that day inevitably arrives will be fantastic. The stunning victory will quickly blot out the painful memories of the long struggle… You could replace the word ‘gold’ with the words ‘real estate’ throughout this essay and it would apply today. Reprinted with permission from KCM Blog Site

Double Dip or Double Your Money? … or Both?

Last week, MacroMarkets LLC announced the results of the March 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 111 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists. Many media sources reported on the survey’s comment about a projected ‘double dip’ in prices. What the media didn’t aggressively cover was the other projection in this same report. Today we want to shed light on both portions. Double Dip There is no doubt the survey looked negatively on house prices through the rest of 2011. Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist said: “Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate. Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013. This uninspiring view must be influenced by the persistently weak market fundamentals – high unemployment, supply overhang, an unabated foreclosure crisis, and constrained mortgage credit.” Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director commented on the dreaded ‘double dip’. “Many more experts are now projecting a double-dip after witnessing the double-dead cat bounce that came in the wake of expired government stimulus programs. In December, only 15% of our panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.” However, the longer term view of home prices was much more optimistic. Double Your Money The experts projected that by the end of 2015 home prices would attain a cumulative level of appreciation of almost 10% . This means, if you purchased a house today with a 10% cash down payment, you could double your cash in five years; even taking the projected double dip into consideration. Shiller also noted that there continues to be significant dispersion among the panelists regarding their individual home price forecasts: “A few respondents do see a real recovery, predicting prices up 20% or so by 2015.” If that happens, you would have TRIPLED your cash. Bottom Line If you are thinking of selling in the next 12 months, you should do it before the projected ‘double dip’. If you are thinking of buying and you plan to live in the home for at least five years, your financial investment will be fine. Reprinted by permission from KCM Blogsite

Distressed Properties: Discounts and Difficulties

Most buyers want to make sure they get a ‘good deal’ when they purchase something. Purchasers of real estate are no different. That is why many decide to buy a distressed property (a foreclosure or a short sale). The National Association of Realtors (NAR) last week reported foreclosures, on average, sell at a 22% discount and short sales at a 17% discount. It sounds like a pretty good decision to buy a property at those levels of discount.

However, the purchaser must realize that there are added obstacles in these type of transactions. Many foreclosures are left in less than pristine condition by the previous owner and some have title issues that must be corrected before they can change hands. Many short sales have multiple loans that must be negotiated before an offer is accepted by all parties to the transaction. This can take months in many cases. Purchasing a non-distressed property will probably have a lot fewer pitfalls.

Patience Equity

Does that mean that you shouldn’t consider a distressed property? Not necessarily. Just understand that there is an additional cost to purchasing a foreclosure or a short sale: the cost of time. For some, the 17 or 22 percent discount is well worth the extra time they must spend on the transaction. We like to call that savings your ‘patience equity’. Patience equity will require you to be patient however. Realize going into the deal that there will be obstacles to overcome and make sure you give your real estate professional time to overcome these challenges. Again, patience equity will require your patience.

Bottom Line
Buying a distressed property could make sense for you as long as you realize you will need to be VERY patient with your real estate agent throughout the process. If you are, you will own a home that has considerable equity the day you move in.

Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity for Buyers?

Business Insider’s Money Game interviewed real estate expert Barbara Corcoran earlier this week. This is what she said about buying in this market:

“We have a regular real estate miracle happening right now. We not only have record low prices, but we also have cheap money.”

A second real estate icon, Donald Trump, just a few weeks ago said:

“This is a great time to go out and buy a house. And if you do, in 10 years you’re going to look back and say, ‘You know, I‘m glad I listened to Donald Trump’.”

Maybe it’s time to start listening to the people who have made fortunes buying and selling real estate. They may know best!!

Homeownership: What Americans Think

There is a growing number of people debating whether the government should continue its level of support for homeownership. Mortgage assistance is being pulled back and even the mortgage-tax-deduction is now up for debate. We want to look at how the people of this country view owning a home and the reasons they buy. Last week, Fannie Mae released the National Housing Survey. Here are the survey’s more interesting findings.

Belief in Homeownership

 96% of all homeowners said homeownership has been a positive experience.
 84% of Americans still believe that owning a home makes more sense than renting. Even 68% of renters believe owning makes more sense.
 64% consider buying a home as a safe investment. Buying a home was considered safer than buying stocks by over three times the number of people (64% vs 17%).
 2 in 3 Americans believe that lifestyle benefits of homeownership (65%) are superior to the financial benefits (32%).

Top Non-Financial Reasons to Buy a Home

Lifestyle Benefits: The broader security and lifestyle benefits of homeownership, such as providing a good and secure place for your family and children, where you have the control to make renovations and updates if you want, and in a place that’s in a community and location that you prefer.
1. It means having a good place to raise children and provide a good education
2. You have a physical structure where you and your family feel safe
3. It allows you to have more space for your family
4. It gives you control over what you do with your living space (renovations & updates)
5. It allows you to live in a nicer home
6. It allows you to live in a location that is closer to work, family, or friends

Top Financial Reasons to Buy a Home

Financial Benefits: The financial benefits of homeownership: its value as an investment (especially compared to paying rent), its value as a way to build up wealth for retirement or to pass on to your family, and the tax benefit.
1. Paying rent is not a good investment
2. Buying a home provides a good financial opportunity
3. Owning a home is a good way to build up wealth and pass it along to my family
4. It is a good retirement investment
5. Owning a home provides tax benefits
6. Owning a home gives me something I can borrow against if I need it

Bottom Line

The people of this country have always seen great value in owning their own home. They still do. We believe we should never underestimate the importance of homeownership as a crucial piece of the American Dream.

Honesty Is the Best Policy

For years, many buyers weren’t honest about their income and some loan officers didn’t care. The loans were bundled by Wall Street and sold to investors who were told anything but the truth about their value. For years, some real estate professionals prodded appraisers to move that appraisal up ‘just a bit’ and most sellers thanked them for it. The housing bubble was created on a bed of dishonesty. I’m not saying that any group was malicious in their intent. Everyone probably believed that it would all work out in the end. But, it didn’t. Instead, we were faced with the largest housing collapse since the Great Depression.

A market built on so many half-truths couldn’t continue to grow. Its foundation was rotten. Governmental regulation has forced most parties to rethink the way the housing industry can survive. A person given a mortgage must now prove they have the capability to repay it. An appraiser is held to a higher standard as they determine values. Has the pendulum swung too far? Perhaps. But, something needed to be done.

That brings us to today. Let’s make sure that we demand honesty from real estate professionals in everything we ask them to do. Buyers must insist that the loan officer determines the amount of mortgage they can actually afford. Sellers must make sure they are given an honest estimate of their home’s value in today’s market when listing. Remember to reward the person who has the courage to tell you what you need to know not the one who is telling you what you want to hear.

Honesty is the only thing that will bring back the housing market.

For Buyers:The Financial Opportunity of a Lifetime?

We often point out that a buyer should be more concerned about the COST of a home rather than the PRICE. Price obviously is a component of cost. However, unless you buy all-cash, you must also be concerned about the financing of the purchase. The price and the financing together determine the cost of a home. Today, we want to look at only the financing piece.

An opportunity exists today because of recent government involvement; an opportunity that may never again be available in our lifetimes. There has been much discussion about what role the federal government should have in supporting homeownership. We will leave our opinions on the debate for another time. However, we want to alert you to two advantages available to a purchaser today that may disappear in the future:

 Historically low interest rates
 The ability to lock in these rates for thirty years

Interest Rates

Because of the financial crisis, the government stepped in and instituted a series of programs which pushed mortgage interest rates to historic lows. If we look at 30 year mortgage interest rates before and after government intervention we see the impact these programs had.

According to Freddie Mac, from 2006 to the start of the financial crisis (the fall of 2008), the average rate was 6.29%. Since then, the average rate has been 4.92%.

A purchaser can still get a 30 year-fixed-rate-mortgage at approximately 5%. However, interest rates this low may soon disappear. The government has questioned its role in supporting homeownership. In the administration’s REFORMING AMERICA’S HOUSING FINANCE MARKET: A REPORT TO CONGRESS, they are very strong in voicing their thoughts on this issue:

…our plan also dramatically transforms the role of government in the housing market. In the past, the government’s financial and tax policies encouraged housing purchases and real estate investment over other sectors of our economy, and ultimately left taxpayers responsible for much of the risk incurred by a poorly supervised housing finance market.
Going forward, the government’s primary role should be limited to robust oversight and consumer protection, targeted assistance for low- and moderate-income homeowners and renters, and carefully designed support for market stability and crisis response…

Under our plan, private markets … will be the primary source of mortgage credit and bear the burden for losses.
What are the probable results of this decision?

The Royal Bank of Scotland:

“The (government) currently provides 95% of housing finance in the U.S.; any reductions of their involvement in supporting mortgages mean interest rates will have to go up to induce private lending.”

AnnaMaria Andriotis, writer for Market Watch:

“In the proposals were changes that will mean more expensive mortgages, with higher fees and, probably, higher interest rates, larger down payments and, in the near term, fewer lenders to choose from.”

The day of a 5% rate seem to be coming to an end.

Locking in a rate for thirty years

We must also realize that having the ability to lock-in a rate for 30 years may soon be a thing of the past.
There are a growing number of people who think that our mortgage industry should imitate those of other industrial countries around the world. If we do start limiting government support for the mortgage process, the 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage may disappear. Other countries, like Canada, only allow a purchaser to lock in a rate for a five year term. After that, the borrower must renegotiate a new mortgage at current rates. Could that happen here?

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Economics.com addressing the administration’s recent report:

“A private system would likely mean the end of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as a mainstay of U.S. housing finance. A privatized U.S. market would come to resemble overseas markets, primarily offering adjustable-rate mortgages. Based on the experience overseas, the fixed-rate share in the U.S. would decline to an average of between 10% and 20% of the mortgage market compared with a historical average of closer to 75%.”

Bottom Line

The COST of a home is dramatically impacted by the mortgage component. Today, we can get a 5% mortgage and lock it in at 5% for the next thirty years!! Both of these opportunities may disappear in the near future. You should take this into consideration if you’re looking to purchase a home.




Reprinted from KCM Blog

If Your Goal Is to Buy Low, Buy Now!

There is a very famous saying which asserts “Sell High, Buy Low”. It is obviously great advice no matter what the investment. We want to sell high (point of maximum risk) and buy low (point of maximum opportunity).
The challenge is how to determine when we have hit bottom if you are a purchaser. The only time you can guarantee a bottom is after you pass it.

However, there is more and more evidence that the COST of a home has in fact hit bottom. Notice we have used the word COST. Unless you are an all cash buyer, you must take into consideration the expense of financing a property to determine the true cost of purchasing the home. Interest rates have increased over the last quarter; and the rise in rates has counteracted any fall in prices.

Let’s look at an example:

Let’s say you were going to take out a $200,000 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage in November of 2010. At that time, interest rates were 4.17% (as per Freddie Mac). Your principle and interest payment would have come to $974.54. According to the most recent report from Case Shiller house prices fell 3.9% in the 4th quarter of 2010. The most recent report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency shows a 0.8% fall in prices. Let’s use the larger percentage decrease: 3.9%.

For the sake of keeping the math simple, we will now say you can get the same house with a $192,000 mortgage (4% discount from November price). Interest rates are now 4.95% (as per Freddie Mac).

Your principle and interest payment would now be $1,067.54.

By waiting to pay less for the PRICE of the house, the COST increased $93 a month. That adds up to $1,116 a year and over $33,000 over the life of the loan.

We realize that there are other things to consider (ex. the mortgage tax deduction, etc.). This example is just a simple way to show that there is a difference between COST and PRICE.

Bottom Line

If you want to buy low, buy now. It appears COST has hit its lowest point.