March 2010 MLS Report

David’s Comments

Right now I think Charlie Brown has this world figured out. “Wouldn’t it be nice if our lives were like a VCR (video recorder), and we could ‘fast forward’ through the crummy times?" From the Peanuts comic strip by Charles Schulz. The economy continues to sputter; we get good economic reports and then a bad one. Unemployment is declining but not by large numbers, we still have lots of people looking for jobs. While the Federal Reserve was buying Mortgage Backed Securities we saw 30 year fixed rates stay in the 4.71% to 5.0% zone and now that the Federal Reserve has stopped buying Mortgage Backed Securities, rates have started climbing again moving up to 5.21% last week. There are only 19 more days for buyers to take advantage of the Tax Credit.

We have now seen 7 months of growth in sold units over the same time frame from a year ago, March had a gain of 8.3% over March of 2009. Our average sold price is down 7.1% from last month and up 3.6% over last March. Our pending index is up about 17.4% over last month and is up about 19.5% over 2009 this time. In the month of March we saw an increase of 338 homes in our listing inventory, we have 5,577 homes on the market as of April 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of over a 15.2 month supply. Our average list price has stayed below the $400,000 range for seven months; we are currently at $380,975. Our rolling 12 months (year over year) shows a gain of 108 units or 2.5% gain. For March we saw an increase in our seller concessions, it is now 27.7%. Our average days on the market remained in the 130’s. The list to sold ratio is 94.1% and is down .1% from last month; this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 18.6% of March sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.21% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 8, 2010. We still have the benefits of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers is for homes that are under contract by April 30th and closed by June 30th.

Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.
Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.

Listing Inventory
In March we saw a big increase in listing inventory of 338 units. We are about 38 units over March 2009. We have 5,577 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $380,975 is up by $4,081 from last month. The average list price has increased by 2.0% from January 2010. If you look back over the last three years you will see our low point in listing inventory to be about Dec/Jan time frame.


Monthly Average Sold Price
Our monthly average sold price is down by 7.1% from last month and up 3.6% from March 2009. Our average sold price is down by $17,152 from last month. March average sold price ($224,765) shows a decrease of 4.1% from year end 2009.



Monthly Sold Units
The number of sold homes is up 29.9% from last month and up 8.3% from March 2009. March saw an increase of 28 sold homes over March 2009. This is our seventh monthly increase in year over year sold homes since September 2005. You can notice that all of our big dips seem to occur on or about December. I believe we will continue to see the next couple of months with unit sales over and above the previous year. No doubt in my mind the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit has contributed to this increase in sales units and I would anticipate it to continue over the next several weeks as we approach the deadline of being under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30th.

Average Sold Price Year to Date
Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
While our current year to date numbers are lower than Year End 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. The first quarter of 2010 has a 127 sold unit gain over first quarter 2009. The average sales price is just .07% higher for 2010 than 2009. Our median sales price is just 1.6% behind 2009.

Rolling 12 months
Another bright spot is the rolling 12 month numbers. When we look at April 1st, 2009 to March 31st, 2010 we have 4,492 sold units and when we compare April 1st, 2008 to March 31st, 2009 we have a 108 unit gain (4,384 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 6.7%. So the dates of 4/1/2009 to 3/31/2010 we have an average sold price of $234,334 while from 4/1/2008 to 3/31/2009 we had an average sold price $251,139.



Median Sold Price
Our Median sold price is down 5.4% from last month, about $175,000. While we have not dipped as low as the National Median we seem to have turned the corner while the national median is still showing a decrease. We took a big hit this month with our median dipping to $175,000 from last month of $185,000. I would anticipate over the next couple of months to see this median increase.



Pending
Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. We saw our pending index turn back to its upward climb about the first week in January. Over the month of March we saw a 17.4% increase and we are 19.5% ahead of 2009 this time. With the current Tax Credit deadline extension I think we will see our pending sales climb thru April 2010, I will be real curious to see how we fare in the month of May.

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in March, 365 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,577 gives us a 15.2 month supply of single family homes. This improved by 3 months from last month. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $238,889 and the average sold price is $224,765 for March which gives us a 94.1% list to sold price ratio – a decrease of .01% from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year.
Seller Concessions – We had 27.7% of sold properties report a sales concession for March, an increase of 3.0%. With the tax credit extended to April a lot of the March sales did not offer as much in concessions as in the past which is why we saw another 3% increase. We want this number to go lower.

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 139 for March. That is almost 5 + months to keep a property on the market. Only 18.6% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of March, a change of 2% from last month.

Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 538 single family homes for sale and this represents a 34 unit increase over March 2010 and 9.6% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $430,933 an increase of about $2,187 from February. In March there were 25 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 21.5 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach (this is came down from 33 months because our increase in sales for March). The average sold price for the month of March was $249,072 and is down from last month. In March 2009 we had 22 home sales at an average $292,111. When we look at our rolling 12 months April 1, 2009 to March 31, 2010 we have 285 homes sold at an average price of $291,129. While April 1, 2008 to March 31, 2009 we had 256 homes sold at an average price of $352,537.

This data was pulled on April 11, 2010, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through March 31, 2010.

The Market
Bond Yields Push 30-Year Mortgage Rates to Highest Level in Eight MonthsBonds yields push 30-year mortgage rates to highest level in eight months
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.21 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending April 8, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 5.08 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.87 percent. This is the highest the 30-year FRM has been since the week ending August 13, 2009 when it averaged 5.29 percent.

“Once again, mortgage rates followed bond yields higher amid a positive March employment report,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The economy added 162,000 jobs, which was the largest monthly gain over the past three years. In addition, revisions raised the January and February figures by a combined 61,000 workers. Excluding government employees, private payrolls rose for the third consecutive month and were the strongest increase since May 2007.

“Following its extension in early November of last year, the homebuyer tax credit is showing some impact on housing market activity, mostly through the use of government-insured mortgages, which tend to be a favorite among first-time homebuyers. Compared to the week ending December 4, 2009, which was the first week after the original expiration date, mortgage applications for home purchases are up 17 percent for the first week in April of this year for government-insured loans, compared to an 11 percent decline in conventional loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Also, pending existing home sales jumped 8.2 percent in February, well above the market consensus and represented the second largest increase since records began in 2001, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Homebuyers must enter a housing contract by April 30th and close by June 30th in order to receive the tax credit."

Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rates


I offer these key statistics to keep you informed as to how our market is moving. With 20 years of real estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for their current mortgage. Call me today for a quote.