May 2010 MLS Report

Comments
A Charlie Brown economy in 2010? Is an economy that experiences variable performance with ups and downs, similar to the pattern on his shirt. We continue to see the ups and downs of our economy – the upside - 30 year fixed mortgage rates are below 5%; the consumer seems to be feeling good, as the Consumer Sentiment number arrived at 75.5, above expectations and the best reading since January 2008. The Unemployment Rate did drop from 9.9% to 9.7%. The downsides - Our country is dealing with one of our worst oil disasters; we continue to get deeper in debt, our economic recovery is still fragile at the moment. While Europe is dealing with Greece and Euro problems – there are a lot of problems out there. To say our economy looks like Charlie Browns shirt sure fits pretty good.

We have 9 months of growth in sold units over the same time frame from a year ago. May had a decrease in sold units from April and a slight decrease in the average sold price of .03%. The median price saw an increase of 1.9% over last month. Our pending index is down about 12.5% from last month. It appears that about May 3rd our pending index peaked (see chart), this coincides with April 30th deadline for first time homebuyers to be under contract. The other adjustment is the fact that Realtors have to report transactions to the MLS within 3 days.
In the month of May we saw an increase of 44 homes in our listing inventory, we have 5,664 homes on the market as of June 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of over a 13.0 month supply. Our average list price has stayed below the $400,000 range for nine months; we are currently at $386,624. Our rolling 12 months (year over year) shows a gain of 556 units or 13.4% gain. In May we saw a decrease in our seller concessions, it is now 28.4%. Our average days on the market are 124. The list to sold ratio is 94.5% and is down .2% from last month; this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 19.4% of May sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.72% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending June 10, 2010. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients. With 30 year fixed rates back down to a historic low and housing inventories still high we are still in a very strong buyers market. Now is the time to buy residential real estate.

Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character. Call me for a loan today.

Listing Inventory
In May we saw an increase in listing inventory of 44 units. We are about 175 units over June 2009. We have 5,664 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $386,624 is up by $1,024 from last month. The average list price has increased by 4.1% from February 2010. If you look back over the last three years you will see our low point in listing inventory to be about Dec/Jan time frame.

Monthly Average Sold Price
Our monthly average sold price is down by .3% from last month and down 14.1% from May 2009. Our average sold price is down by $601 from last month. Our May average sold price ($220,645) shows a decrease of 5.9% from year end 2009. Our average sold price has remained pretty consistent since March 2010 - $221,016 to April $221,246 and of course May at $220,645.

Monthly Sold Units
The number of sold homes is down 7.7% from last month and up 15.5% from May 2009 and we are 14.8% down from May 2008. May saw an increase of 58 sold homes over May 2009. This is our ninth monthly increase in year over year sold homes since September 2005. You can notice that all of our big dips seem to occur on or about December. I believe we will continue to see the next couple of months with unit sales over and above the previous year. No doubt in my mind the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit has contributed to this increase in sales units and I would anticipate it to continue until the June 30th deadline.

Average Sold Price Year to Date
Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
2010 year to date average sale price $223,628

While our current year to date numbers are lower than Year End 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. The first five months of 2010 has a 342 sold unit gain over first five months of 2009. The average sales price is down 3.3% for the first five months of 2010 compared to the first five months of 2009. Our median sales price is just 2.7% behind 2009.

Rolling 12 months
Another bright spot is the rolling 12 month numbers. When we look at June 1st, 2009 to May 31st, 2010 we have 4,703 sold units and when we compare June 1st, 2008 to May 31st, 2009 we have a 556 unit gain (4,147 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 5.9%. So the dates of 6/1/2009 to 5/31/2010 we have an average sold price of $231,024 while from 6/1/2008 to 5/31/2009 we had an average sold price $245,600.

Median Sold Price
Our Median sold price is up 1.9% from last month, about $185,000. While we have not dipped as low as the National Median we seem to have turned the corner while the national median is showing a slight increase. I would anticipate over the next couple of months to see this median increase.

Pending
Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. We saw our pending index turn back to its upward climb about the first week in January. We saw our peak pending numbers about May 3rd, we have to go back to June 25th 2008 to see our last peak. In 2009 our index only hit the 900 unit range a couple of times. As I write this we are at 847 units that are pending right now. The end of May we are 12.5% down from April 30th, 2010.

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in May, 433 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,664 gives us a 13.0 month supply of single family homes. This increased by .7 months from last month. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $233,513 and the average sold price is $220,644 for May which gives us a 94.5% list to sold price ratio – a decrease of .2% from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year, but this is the second month we have come close to 95% list to sold ratio.

Seller Concessions – We had 28.4% of sold properties report a sales concession for May, an decrease of 1.6%. We want this number to go lower.

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 124 for May. That is almost 5 + months to keep a property on the market. Only 19.4% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of May.

Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 534 single family homes for sale and this represents a 1 unit increase over May 1, 2010 and 9.4% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $415,478 an decrease of about $4,319 from April. In May there were 36 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have an 14.8 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The monthly supply of homes continues to come down, this is good. The average sold price for the month of May was $280,803 and is down $11,070 from last month. In May 2009 we had 25 home sales at an average $339,081. When we look at our rolling 12 months June 1, 2009 to May 31, 2010 we have 298 homes sold at an average price of $285,135. While June 1, 2008 to May 31, 2009 we had 249 homes sold at an average price of $340,462.

This data was pulled on June 12, 2010, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through May 31, 2010.

The Market
Mortgage Rates remain at historic lows
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.72 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 10, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.79 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.59 percent.

"Following a relatively weak employment report, bond yields fell this week and mortgage rates followed," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Private payrolls rose by 41,000 jobs in May, less than a quarter of the market forecast consensus of an 180,000 gain. Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgage hover near the record low set on December 3, 2009 in our survey; the Primary Mortgage Market Survey began in April 1971. Meanwhile, rates on 15-year fixed mortgages set another record low for the fourth week in a row.

"Overall, the economy does show signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve reported in its June 9th regional economic review that the economy strengthened in all 12 of its Districts over April and May. It also noted that loan quality was stable or improving in most Districts, but remained an issue for banks with large exposure to real estate."

Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rates


Hurricane Season Tips - This week marks the start of Hurricane season, certainly not a word we like to hear in the Cape Fear Region. This year's hurricane season is predicted to be an above average forecast. At least we get advance warning, it’s not like the mid-west that just gets hit with tornado's or flash floods at a moment’s notice. As a busy sales agent you need to be prepared to deal with a Hurricane, especially since it can be predicted.

A few pointers:
Have all your summer clients secure insurance as soon as they can. Most insurance carriers shut down once a Hurricane or Tropical Storm enters the "No Write Zone". The bottom of the Zone is 20.0 N 65.0 W over to 20.0 N 85.0 W and the top of the Zone is above the Virginia state line.
Most flood coverage has a 30-day waiting period before this coverage takes effect. There are exceptions to this rule for Homeowners closing. Please ask your insurance agent, or have your buyer ask a lot of questions.

Here are a few web sites that you may find useful:

http://www.hurricanes.noaa.gov National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
http://www.hurricanetrack.com Hurricane tracking
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov National Weather Service – Tropical Prediction
http://townofwrightsvillebeach.com Wrightsville Beach info
http://www.nhcgov.com New Hanover County
http://www.weather.com National Weather
http://www.hurricanehunters.com Air Force Reserve Unit that flies into hurricanes
http://www.cormp.org UNCW's Coastal Ocean Research Project at Jonnie Mercers Pier
http://www.fema.gov Federal Emergency Management Administration

I offer these key statistics to keep you informed as to how our market is moving. With 20 years of real estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for their current mortgage. Call me today for a quote.
Cunningham & Company is a full service Mortgage Banker - we handle everything in house. We do first time buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans as well as several interest only programs. Call me today with my background in real estate and the resources of Cunningham & Company working together... you can't miss. A loan in the crowd.



This report was prepared by David Flory NMLS #91592. Please check him out for all of your mortgage needs.
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Mortgage Consultant
Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers
910-352-8273 cell
910-313-0045 office
davidf@cunninghammortgage.com
www.cunninghammortgage.com