October MLS Report

Every month, David Flory with Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers does an MLS report with sales and inventory levels for our MLS area as well as on our island. I find this to be a very informative report and thought you might find it interesting as well. He has several graphs each month, but I have not been able to copy them to my blog. If you have any questions or would like more information or the graphs, please do not hesitate to call me at 877 617-7654 or email me at joyce@intracoastalrealty.com.

David’s Comments –

“You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there” Yogi Berra
So where are you going? Do you know how to get there? Where is our economy going? Does the Federal Reserve know how to get there? In the last week the Federal Reserve announced that it plans to purchase up to $600 billion in government securities. Treasury bond yields initially fell and then gradually rose again. This allowed mortgage rates to fall to record levels this past week (see comments on Mortgage rates further in report). Will this action succeed and improve our housing recovery. Our housing recovery is key to the current economic situation.

Octobers average sales price has managed to exceed last month as well as 2009 year end average sales price. While the numbers of sales were down from last month and as well as down from a year ago. Our average sales price is up 5.8% over last month and up 1.1% from Year End 2009. When we look at our year to date average sold price we are only down 2.1% from Year End 2009. Our median sold price is up from last month by 4.8% and down by 2.4% from last year this time. Our median sold price has rebounded and has risen and is only 1.2% behind 2009 year end median. In our rolling 12 months we are up 10.8% in sold units and our average sold price is only down by 3.7%. Sold units are only 85 units down from last month and down 153 from last October.

In the month of October we saw a decrease of 241 homes in our listing inventory, we have 5,150 homes on the market as of November 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of over a 16.8 month supply. With the low sales in October this affects our month supply with a change of 2.6 months from last month. Our average list price has stayed below the $400,000 range for the last year; we are currently at $364,097. In October we saw an increase in our seller concessions, it is now 25.6%. Our average days on the market are 121. The list to sold ratio is 93.0% and there is no change from last month; this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 18.0% of October sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.17% with an average 0.8 points for the week ending November 11, 2010. We have hit historic lows in mortgage rates. Call me so I can show you or your clients how they can get the benefit of these rates. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.

Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.

Listing Inventory

In October we saw a decrease in listing inventory of 241 units. We are about 146 units under November 1, 2009. We have 5,150 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $364,097 is down by $801 from last month. The average list price has decreased by 4.8% from November 1, 2009.


Monthly Average Sold Price

Our monthly average sold price is up by 5.8% from last month and down .01% from October 2009. Our average sold price is up by $12,898.00 from last month. October average sold price ($236,985) shows an increase of 1.1% from year end 2009. Our average sold price is up by $321.00 from last October.

Monthly Sold Units

This month’s decline in the number of homes sold when compared to previous year is down 153 units. The number of sold homes is down 21.8% from last month and down 33.4% from October 2009. Last month we had 390 sold units and this month 305 sold units, last year in October we had 458 sold units.

Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
2010 year to date average sale price $229,458

While our current year to date numbers are lower than Year End 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. The first ten months of 2010 has a 211 sold unit gain over first ten months of 2009. The average sales price is down 2.9% for the first ten months of 2010 than the first ten months of 2009. Our median sales price is just 1.2% behind 2009.

Rolling 12 months

When we look at November 1st, 2009 to October 31st, 2010 we have 4,580 sold units and when we compare November 1st, 2008 to October 31st, 2009 we have a 448 unit gain (4,132 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 3.7%. So the dates of 11/1/2009 to 10/31/2010 we have an average sold price of $228,669 while from 11/1/2008 to 10/31/2009 we had an average sold price $237,397.

Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price rebounded this month an increase of 4.8% from last month, up to $181,500. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price dip from last month matches up with the national median for September. I am hoping we can see the national median sales price reverse its downward trend.

Pending

Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. We saw our peak pending numbers about May 3rd. We are actually up 2.3% from last month and we are down just 16.9% from November 2, 2009. With the tax credit benefits expired it will be interesting to see if our sales can improve going into early fall.


Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in October, 305 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,150 gives us a 16.8 month supply of single family homes. This increased by 2.6 months from last month. We need to get this inventory back under 12 months. With a large inventory and the few sales in October this affects our market absorption. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down.
List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $254,799 and the average sold price is $236,984 for October which gives us a 93.0% list to sold price ratio – a zero change from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year and several months.

Seller Concessions – We had 25.6% of sold properties report a sales concession for October, an increase of 2.1%. We want this number to go lower.

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 121 for October. That is about 4 months to keep a property on the market. Only 18.0% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of October.

Carolina & Kure Beach

There are currently 405 single family homes for sale and this represents a 40 unit decrease over October 1, 2010 and 7.9% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $412,359 a decrease of about $3,484 from October. In October there were 28 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 14.4 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of October was $263,439 and is up $11,864 from last month. When we look at our rolling 12 months November 1, 2009 to October 31, 2010 we have 327 homes sold at an average price of $284,291. While November 1, 2008 to October 31, 2009 we had 266 homes sold at an average price of $301,186.

This data was pulled on November 13, 2010, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through October 31, 2010.

The Market

30 Year & 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages fall to new lows
-Year and 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Fall to New Lows
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® , which found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and the 15-year (FRM) set new records for all-time lows. The 5-year ARM also reached another new low in the survey while the 1-year ARM remained at its nadir.

News Facts

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.17 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 11, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.24 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.91 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.57 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.63 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.36 percent.

Quotes

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
"Following the Federal Reserve (Fed) November 3rd policy announcement that it plans to purchase up to $600 billion in government securities, Treasury bond yields initially fell and then gradually rose again. This allowed mortgage rates to fall to record levels this week.

"Despite historically low mortgage rates, however, the housing recovery continues to be slow owing in part to household job uncertainty and tight credit conditions. The unemployment rate has remained at 9.5 percent or higher for the past 15 months, while commercial banks tightened lending standards in 16 of the last 17 quarters, according to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey."
Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rates


FHA approved Condo’s
Are you aware that about 75% of the FHA approved Condo’s in our area have to be recertified by December 7th, 2010? In order for a Condo purchaser to get a FHA loan after December 7th the Condo project will have to complete their condo recertification. You can go the web site for HUD to get a list of approved condo’s for our area. Go to www.hud.gov and then go to Resources, in this select HUD approved Condominium projects, then select North Carolina and Wilmington. You can then see the different FHA approved Condo’s in this area – look at the far column and you will see the expiration date of Condo’s in our area. If I can help in any way let me know.

I offer these key statistics to keep you informed as to how our market is moving. With 20 years of real estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for their current mortgage. Call me today for a quote.

Cunningham & Company is a full service Mortgage Banker - we handle everything in house. We do first time buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans as well as several interest only programs. Call me today with my background in real estate and the resources of Cunningham & Company working together... you can't miss. A loan in the crowd.



David Flory NMLS #91592

Mortgage Consultant
Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers
910-352-8273 cell
910-313-0045 office
davidf@cunninghammortgage.com
www.cunninghammortgage.com